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Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three quarter-point reductions this year amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm anticipates a 35% probability of recession within 12 months, up from 20%, and has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter to 1.0% while raising the year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast for the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 35%. This adjustment reflects growing concerns about economic conditions and potential downturns in the near future. The financial institution's analysis highlights the shifting landscape of the economy.
Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts this year, adjusting their forecast to July, September, and November, rather than June and December. This shift aligns with their outlook of a heightened recession risk due to impending tariffs from Trump on April 2.
Goldman Sachs anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement three quarter-point interest rate cuts in 2025, adjusting its forecast due to tariff uncertainties. The brokerage now expects these cuts to occur consecutively in July, September, and November, revising its earlier prediction of two cuts in June and December.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% and forecasts three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing President Trump's tariffs as a significant factor impacting the global economy. The firm has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.5% and cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5,700. Additionally, Europe is expected to face a more severe economic downturn, potentially entering a technical recession, with the European Central Bank anticipated to implement further rate cuts.
Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts this year, adjusting their forecast to July, September, and November, rather than June and December. This shift aligns with their outlook of a heightened recession risk due to impending tariffs from Trump on April 2.
Goldman Sachs anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement three quarter-point interest rate cuts in 2025, adjusting its forecast due to tariff uncertainties. The brokerage now expects these cuts to occur consecutively in July, September, and November, revising its earlier prediction of two cuts in June and December.
Goldman Sachs has raised its U.S. recession probability from 20% to 35%, reflecting a significant shift in economic outlook, now incorporating a "stagflationary twist." The firm projects inflation to reach 3.5% in 2025 and GDP growth to slow to 1.0%. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming tariff announcements and key economic reports.
Goldman Sachs anticipates a 15% average reciprocal tariff on all US trading partners to be announced by President Trump on April 2, potentially adjusted to a 9 percentage point increase due to product and country exclusions. The firm warns that these higher tariffs could elevate inflation, pushing core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.5% year-on-year and leading to a GDP growth downgrade to 1% for 2025. Consequently, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, with a 35% probability of a recession within the next year.
Jim Cramer advises caution regarding Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), suggesting investors wait for a better entry point as it trades at 12 times earnings. While he acknowledges the bank's potential, he emphasizes that AI stocks may offer higher returns in a shorter timeframe. Cramer also critiques the past free trade policies, advocating for tariffs to revive American manufacturing jobs.
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